[讨论]杭州大学生经济论坛
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一．前言﹔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一開始會對此篇論文引起興趣，是因為台灣現今的經濟重心不可否認的已經漸漸轉移到中國大陸。加上常常看到很多雜誌再再提及中國大陸的官方統計資料，常常為了帳面上的好看而作假，所以此篇論文針對中國城鎮失業率的探討，我有著高度的期待。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><font face="宋体, MS Song">此篇論文除了簡述了研究動機及目的外，還提及到一般失業理論和近代學者對中國失業率的看法比較，作者針對他們的研究缺點提出改進﹔最後利用奧肯法則評估失業率對經濟成長率所造成的影響</font></span> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一．前言﹔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一開始會對此篇論文引起興趣，是因為台灣現今的經濟重心不可否認的已經漸漸轉移到中國大陸。加上常常看到很多雜誌再再提及中國大陸的官方統計資料，常常為了帳面上的好看而作假，所以此篇論文針對中國城鎮失業率的探討，我有著高度的期待。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><font face="宋体, MS Song">此篇論文除了簡述了研究動機及目的外，還提及到一般失業理論和近代學者對中國失業率的看法比較，作者針對他們的研究缺點提出改進﹔最後利用奧肯法則評估失業率對經濟成長率所造成的影響</font></span> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">二．優</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">.</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">缺點﹔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">優點﹔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 72pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 72.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">I.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">緒論中一語道破研究的緣起與目的，內容流程，讓人直接明瞭此論文的主要意義為何。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 72pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 72.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">II.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">針對一般失業理論進行簡述，並定義‘失業’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">.</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">‘隱藏性失業’及一般用來評估中國城鎮真實失業率的各種方式。最難能可貴的莫過於把近代學者對中國失業率的看法製成表格，並敘述各方法的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 48pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">缺點，進而推導出自己對中國城鎮失業率的計算方法﹔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 48pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中國城鎮失業率＝公開失業率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">+</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">隱藏性失業率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">+</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">下崗工人失業率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">+</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">農村流入失業率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 48pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ⅲ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">把中國的失業問題進行三個原因的分析探討</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 90.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">A.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">隱藏性失業問題嚴重</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">冗員與下崗工人</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 90.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">B.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">勞動市場流動性不足</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">與西方資本主義國家最大的不同點</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 90.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">C.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">規模龐大</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">人口眾多，但因共產的特殊體制，不得不提供</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">7.3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">億的工作機會。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Ⅳ 失業率的計算﹔分成三個部分直接求解﹔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 90.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">A.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">公開性失業人口</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 90.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">B.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">隱藏性失業人口</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 90.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">C.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">流動性失業人口</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 72pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">其中以１９９９年為例並對隱藏性失業有深入探究。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Ⅴ 奧肯法則</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">描述經濟成長率與失業率的反向關係。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">自己提出三個困難點﹔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; tab-stops: list 90.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">A.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">奧肯法則適合用於中國大陸嗎</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">?<p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; tab-stops: list 90.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">B.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">如何評估中國的自然失業率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">?<p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; tab-stops: list 90.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">C.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中國的奧肯參數〈經濟成長率與失業率的相關係數〉如何估計</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">?<p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">推估中國的奧肯參數</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">---1.</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">越進步的國家，奧肯參數越大</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">２</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">.</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">疆域越大人口越多，奧肯參數越大</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所以作者把中國的奧肯參數定義會介於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">0.45%~0.55%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">之間，在此以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">0.5%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">來作估計。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">缺點﹔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo5; tab-stops: list 96.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">I.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在文章編排中，個人認為可以把中國的失業問題先行敘述，使讀者明瞭中國因為特殊的歷史背景及特殊的政治體系等等的問題，並不適用於現今一般失業理論模型來評估其國內失業率，如此一來此論文的重點會落於估計失業率，而非只是普通的直述性實証研究，更能突顯此論文的價值性。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo5; tab-stops: list 96.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">II.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">筆誤太多。例如﹔</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">P11---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">隱藏性失業的定義，與</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">P13---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">隱藏性失業的定義，前後矛盾。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">P17---1999</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年計算失業下崗者的計算筆誤。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">P17---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">表九的筆誤。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">P19---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中國大陸的真實城鎮失業率的筆誤</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">17.38%-</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span></span><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">17.97%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。其他一些打字上的錯誤就不多提及。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo5; tab-stops: list 96.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">III.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">P8 & P11</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">針對中國大陸的真實城鎮失業率的定義雖然差不多，但是容易使人有被混淆的感覺，若能一致則更有說服力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo5; tab-stops: list 96.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">IV.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">此研究並未定義明確的名詞解釋。個人覺得像作者在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">P11</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">計算就業不足，Ｐ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">14</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">計算冗員的公式，Ｐ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">17</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">計算失業下崗者的真實失業率，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">P18</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">計算流動性失業時，其所用的公式是否有任何的依據</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">?</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在定義隱藏性失業時</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">
</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">，諸如冗員的定義方式，是否合適</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">?<p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo5; tab-stops: list 96.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">V.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">文章中有些數據的尋找過於繁複，且有些還找不到，例如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">P18</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">農村的人口</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">228.6</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬找不到。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo5; tab-stops: list 96.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">VI.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">奧肯法則的運用應該再說明清楚一些，比如減低的失業率真能完全反映在經濟成長率中</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">?</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">而且中國的奧肯參數〈經濟成長率與失業率的相關係數〉</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">0.5%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">，是否過於不客觀</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">?</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">加上已經提出三個困難點，是否應該針對此三個困難點作處理，再慢慢推導出較貼切真實的奧肯參數。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 96pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 24pt; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo5; tab-stops: list 96.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">VII.<span style="FONT: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">最後我們在針對作者估計的經濟成長率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">33.86%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">（包含冗員部分）與</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">20.76%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">（不包含冗員部分）提出質疑，即使是經濟突飛猛進的國家，要想達到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">10%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以上的經濟成長率已經非常困難，何況</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">20%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">甚至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">30%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";">，似乎已經跳脫了一般的現實狀況，試問作者可否聯想到可能另外有一些經濟變數沒考慮進去，才會造成如此誇張的數據。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;"><p></p></span></font></p><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><font face="宋体, MS Song">針對只做</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">1999</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><font face="宋体, MS Song">年失業率及經濟成長率的評估，是否不洽當。如果利用作者提出的方法，多估計</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">1999</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><font face="宋体, MS Song">年前後的失業率及經濟成長率，依然會有如此高的失業率及經濟成長率嗎</font></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 華康標楷體;">?</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: 華康標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><font face="宋体, MS Song">此課題也許可以加以進行探究。</font></span> <p>晕死~~~这么大篇幅,看得头都大了啦~~~!!!以后发一些短小精悍的行不行~~~`</p>
页:
[1]